Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.321721 3.145349 4.301752 6.098282 8.923868e+00 13.393119 2.143875e+01
2025-02-23 1.407967 2.167486 3.432373 5.848477 1.077178e+01 21.531795 5.142727e+01
2025-03-02 0.898836 1.518187 2.690837 5.336380 1.210293e+01 32.422883 1.260291e+02
2025-03-09 0.670186 1.237128 2.455626 5.730587 1.659865e+01 65.952117 5.892311e+02
2025-03-16 0.509311 1.012978 2.221034 6.035545 2.249497e+01 144.209566 5.606368e+03
2025-03-23 0.406531 0.866460 2.091314 6.643220 3.295680e+01 409.888422 1.614220e+06
2025-03-30 0.328518 0.743189 1.954683 7.199284 4.828049e+01 1480.502095 NaN
2025-04-06 0.256095 0.603352 1.685444 6.921746 5.925670e+01 4821.154625 NaN
2025-04-13 0.199754 0.484994 1.418061 6.343271 6.679357e+01 16661.538310 NaN
2025-04-20 0.168897 0.426995 1.329147 6.715540 9.757854e+01 475702.919019 NaN
2025-04-27 0.149183 0.394356 1.317731 7.693850 1.721760e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.133017 0.366511 1.310480 8.848815 3.272510e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.114889 0.327063 1.234974 9.427405 5.707616e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.096621 0.280568 1.095754 9.048132 7.835214e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.080607 0.236973 0.945306 8.209480 9.136569e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.072002 0.217670 0.911553 8.917240 1.948420e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.064280 0.199035 0.869602 9.475403 4.353980e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.058570 0.186281 0.854094 10.572642 1.502561e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.053360 0.173750 0.831720 11.592768 7.181572e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.047108 0.154963 0.755898 11.113457 1.693189e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.041255 0.136314 0.670470 10.094752 2.480181e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.037927 0.127575 0.648831 10.772639 4.996799e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.035785 0.123340 0.657089 12.561012 NaN NaN NaN